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Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears
Matt Fargo Sports Pick - This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Sunday Free Play. The Raiders had one of the most fortunate covers of the season as they got a late safety to win by four points as a three-point favorite and they have now won two straight games to improve to 3-3. Both of those wins were at home with the other win coming in Denver by a point and this team is a few played away from being 1-5 or potentially 0-6. Las Vegas comes in as a favorite once again, this time on the road and it is an overpriced number as the metrics of these teams are not far off.
The Raiders are ranked No. 22 or lower in four of the six EPA categories and have an overall net EPA of No. 23. This offense has been dreadful and while facing a poor defense here, they have faced some bad ones along the way already. Chicago is coming off a tough loss against Minnesota despite outgaining the Vikings as the Bears lost the turnover battle 3-1 and dropped to 1-5.
DAVE ESSLER * NFL (3*) Total of the Year *
The big news is that Justin Fields had to leave the game and will be replaced this week by Tyson Bagent who was put in a bad spot last week. He fumbled on his first drive which led to a touchdown and then threw a late costly interception but was decent in-between. The good news is that he has had a week to practice with the starters so he will be more prepared against an equally bad defense. The Bears have a net EPA of No. 28 which again is not far off from that of the Raiders. Play (454) Chicago Bears. Play Chicago Bears +3.
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