College Football Picks Saturday, October 7, 2023
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Arizona vs USC Saturday
Joe D'Amico Pick - Guys, before you get in a big huff about me choosing Arizona against USC this week, take a deep breath and read my entire analysis (LOL). I'm not going to argue the fact the Trojans don't deserve to be the ninth ranked team in the nation. I mean come on, their offense is absolutely amazing. They rank first in college football in scoring, third in total yards, fourth in passing, and 50th in rushing. I'm also not going to argue quarterback, Caleb Williams, as of this point, is a definite Heisman-candidate. No question, head coach, Lincoln Riley has put together a hell of an offensive juggernaut.
This in turn will certainly attract millions of dollars from other universities wanting to come and visit them. And tons of recruits wanting to show off their talents for NFL scouts. That's all well and good. But let's be very, very honest, this team has totally given up on defense. And yet the oddsmakers are still overvaluing them each week. They covered against Nevada and Stanford. But couldn't get bettors paid, failing to cover against San Jose State, Arizona State, and Colorado. As a matter fact, the last few opponents, the Sun Devils, and the Buffaloes, had them on the ropes. Guys, I'm not going sit here and argue that Arizona is going to take the conference. They won’t. Let's face it, they're just 3-2 straight up with wins against Northern Arizona, UTEP, and Stanford. They did come close against Mississippi State on the road as well as Washington at home, two teams that they on paper, are far inferior from. But this team does cover the pointspread, going 4-1 ATS this season.
They have a less than stellar offense, but certainly strong enough to move the chains against the USC defense. Defensively, they hardly slowed down the Bulldogs and the Huskies, but they did play strong enough on both sides of the ball to keep those contests close. I doubt they're going to make this one too easy for the Trojans here. The status of quarterback, Jayden de Laura is still uncertain as of this post. But backup play-caller, Noah Fifita was good enough to compete last week against Washington. If he gets to start this week, I expect him to do the same. And with Notre Dame up next on the road at South Bend, perhaps Southern Cal might be in a “look ahead” mode or at the very least, take their foot off the gas come the second half. This is way too many points to give a very game, Arizona team. Take the Wildcats. Arizona +21.
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Colorado vs Arizona State
Matt Fargo Sports Pick - This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our Saturday Free Play. The Colorado love continues as it comes in as a road favorite after being a road underdog of three or more touchdowns in its first two road games. Granted, the competition goes down a bunch here but this team is filled with flaws. The defense did a great job against the run last week against USC but was lit up through the air once again and that is not good facing a team that has gotten its passing game going. The absence of Travis Hunter on the defensive side cannot be understated as the unit is allowing 36.6 ppg which is worst in the conference. Arizona St. has lost four straight games which is playing into this number as well but this is a good matchup in a very winnable games as a home underdog.
The Sun Devils have come to life on offense since head coach Kenny Dillingham took over the offensive play calling and they are coming off their best games of the season with 430 totals yards and 6.0 yppl. They go against a Colorado defense that is ranked No. 124 in defensive EPA and their own defense has been strong with the exception of the game against USC. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 2.5 or more turnovers per game and after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse going up against a team averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1992. Play (378) Arizona St. Sun Devils. Arizona State +4 .
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